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ISON Meteor Shower ?

 
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APODman



登録日: 2011.01.08
記事: 34

記事日時: Fri Dec 06, 2013 1:07 am    記事の件名: ISON Meteor Shower ? 引用付きで返信

Hello Mr. Sonotaco.,

I have read many speculations and comments about the possibility of a meteor shower caused by particles ISON (those released during the pre perihelion trajectory, obviously).

I saw a thread in Japanese forum about theme but the translation unfortunately did not come out good enough to be able to understand the entire text.

What are the prospects effectively? Is there any provision for a possible radiant, and date range, so that we could focus our attention?

Regards
Carlos
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SonotaCo
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登録日: 2004.08.07
記事: 9986
所在地: 139.67E 35.65N

記事日時: Fri Dec 06, 2013 9:27 am    記事の件名: Re: ISON Meteor Shower ? 引用付きで返信

Well, ok... the Japanese discussion is almost as follows.

SonotaCo:
It is said that the orbit of comet Ison cross the Earth's orbit at 16/Jan/2014.
Are there any expected radiant data of meteors that might come from comet Ison?

Ueda:
If some meteors comes from comet Ison at 15/Jan/2014(sol long=295deg), the radiant will be ra=152deg,dec=17deg,Vg=51km/s.
But, the distance form Ison's orbit to Earth's orbit is fairly big, so the possibility of appearance is small, and the radiant can be different.

Shaa:
Dr.Abe has twittered that it is 10h10m,16.4deg,52km/s at 02:24 16/Jan/2014(UT).

SonotaCo:
There were few data that have similar radiant in our database.
It is only one (M20080119_233529) in almost 140000 observations in January of 7 years.

The radiant position is at the edge of low probability area so call Hashimoto's gap in Japan.
a and e becomes very big, and q becomes very small there.
Comet Ison had become a real example that shows the difficulty of stable turn around on those orbits.
(this is the reason why there is a gap)

Anyway, usually there were very few meters there, so if they come at 15-16/Jan, it will be clearly recognized.



b20120116_rmap.png
 説明:
expected radiat area
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b20120116_rmap.png



ur20120116om1.png
 説明:
a real sample that has similar orbit, though this is not hyperbolic
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ur20120116om1.png



gaps.jpg
 説明:
explanation of gaps in radiant distribution
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gaps.jpg


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SonotaCo
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登録日: 2004.08.07
記事: 9986
所在地: 139.67E 35.65N

記事日時: Fri Dec 06, 2013 11:00 pm    記事の件名: 引用付きで返信

APODman wrote:
Could I pass this informations ?

Yes, of course.
This forum is already opened to public, and no one owns the copyright of natural phenomena Wink
Firstly, the gap was explained at Jan/2008
http://sonotaco.jp/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1660
and was written in UFOOrbitV2 manual.
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APODman



登録日: 2011.01.08
記事: 34

記事日時: Sat Dec 07, 2013 10:01 pm    記事の件名: 引用付きで返信

It´s a amazing discovery !

If I use a symplectic integrator (Mercury - http://www.arm.ac.uk/~jec/ ) to simulate the solar system and create a disk of particles and leave the solar system evolve for a few thousands years I think it would be possible to simulate this is objects absent orbital track.


(a parallel question, what´s kind of font UFOAnalyzer and Orbit uses ? The texts no longer appear in both softs)
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SonotaCo
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登録日: 2004.08.07
記事: 9986
所在地: 139.67E 35.65N

記事日時: Sun Dec 08, 2013 9:31 am    記事の件名: 引用付きで返信

Yes, I am thinking that evolution of solar system is the key for the research of Earth impacting objects.

And also....
The gaps on the L-Ls(apex relative) plot of radiants below has not been explained. I'm thinking there may be some physical restriction, but I am not sure .

Please use data below if you do research.
http://sonotaco.jp/doc/SNM/
I remember that I wrote a line about the gap in the paper that is linked form the top of the page below.
http://sonotaco.jp/doc/J5/

---
Sorry for the UFO series dialog appearance.
The dialog appearance depends on the system font metric, that differs on each Windows version.
I have been developing on Japanese version of Windows 2000,Xp,Vista,7,8.
and tested under some of English(US)versions also.
But the compatibility of MFC(Microsoft Foundation Class) among language versions is not so good.
UFO series is used on more than 30 countries, but I could publish only one binary for them ...



unknowngaps.jpg
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???
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unknowngaps.jpg


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